American scholar Joseph S. Nye Jr. coined the term ‘soft power’ when the United States’s power and influence were at its peak, and the argument was simple—Should USA resort to hard power for diplomatic settlements or not? The answer was obvious and yet the most powerful nation in the world committed grave mistakes. India under the shadow of US is no different and has imitated similar mistakes. Its economic blockade on Nepal during 1989 and 2015 is viewed as a crime by Nepalis, committed by the Delhi establishment. Such coercive behavior didn’t go well with the common people of Nepal and India lost an old ally.
Power is a powerful theory in international relations. Since the relations between nation-states are often governed by power, the method and approach to influence each other play a key role in the current and future of nation-state ties. India, for long, has been imitating the American version of push-and-pull. But, unfortunately, to the dismay of Delhi administration, the foreign relations of India towards India have failed now and then. While China is making inwards stealthily, India’s clout in Nepal is ebbing away. What both nations are now doing is: achieving a stable and increasing influence using soft-power.
Firstly, India is winning Nepalis by using the means of cricket, tourism, and Bollywood. The southern neighbor knows well that these three mediums are the safest and strongest way to win back disgruntled Nepalis. Although the anti-India sentiments among Nepalis are not so strong as in 2015, it cannot be ignored that two to three generations of Nepalis won’t forget the economic blockade so easily. The other contentious issue in Nepal right now is the use of Hindi language in province 2. A lot of Nepalis see this move by India as working against Nepal’s sovereignty. The handing out of hundreds of Nepali passports to Indian immigrants to Nepal is another major issue when India is signaling out 4 million people in Assam. The Delhi establishment should tactically work on these issues.
Secondly, China is making in-roads both politically and economically. They are targeting India’s population via Nepal. How will India react to this move? India is infamous in Nepal for not finishing projects on time and few critics argue that the southern neighbor only wants its water resources and nothing else. Hence, India doesn’t want to see Nepal being developed and take its own decision exclusively. However, Indian PM Modi seems to be changing his course to a soft-power move. His recent visit to Nepal and removing Indian embassy’s camp office from Biratnagar is now being seen as a good move to improve the Nepal-India relations. The most important document, 1950 Sugauli treaty, that Nepal considers to be an unfair one is now on the verge of being passed after mutual discussion and changes. If it gets passed then India is likely to win back Nepal’s trust.
In the absence of a western power, two questions have emerged in Nepal: 1) Is the landlocked Himalayan nation veering towards China? 2) Can India reclaim its hegemony? In this context, India and China have been pushing Nepal to kick out western-funded international organizations. The major contention for India is the spread of Christianity in Nepal and China is still wary of any Free Tibet campaign. Both countries view their security as the key concern in relation to Nepal. Trade and other themes are secondary for the emerging power giants. What should Nepal understand from this? Both neighboring nations will not move an inch if their security is compromised by Nepal and they also realize that any violent instability in Nepal will create chaos in respective
India has understood that hard power is not going to subdue the resentment brewing in Nepal. Moreover, the largest democracy is now sensing that its past tactics of toppling Kathmandu government and unsettling any form of stability, would only create an unstable region in Northern India. The long-term strategy of pushing Indian nationals into Nepalese territory and hoping to amend the constitution to break away Province 2 (a southern region in Nepal) have backlashed. The accusation against India for orchestrating a language hegemony in Nepal with the use of Bollywood and Indian nationals acquiring Nepali citizenship cannot induce the fact that it hankers goodwill towards its poor, weak northern neighbor. Will India succeed in winning Nepal again with its soft power? Let us wait and watch. Meanwhile, Nepal is slowly rebuilding and India should help the Himalayan nation to become a strong republic that walks away from poverty, underdevelopment, and corruption. If that happens, then perhaps, India will back Nepal again.
