- Current Population of Nepal as of 2020 is estimated at 29,136,808 mid-year according to UN data.
- Nepal’s population covers 0.47% of the total world population.
- Population scientists predict Nepal’s population declining to 23M by 2100
Population scientists have predicted that Nepal’s population may surge to about 35 million in 2050, the highest expected population to be after thirty years. It’s however, predicted that the population will gradually decrease to around 23 million in 2100 making it to be the least recorded number of population (23,708193) throughout the century as it was higher compared to 2100 (23,941,099) back in the year 2000.
As per UN projections, the global population growth rate has already slowed down significantly reaching over 2% in the late 1960s and falling ever since. And for countries like Nepal, Trading economics predicts that we will see a rising trend in the national population count, but because of the high mortality rate and youths and families moving abroad, it will decline by 18% reaching just 23 million in the year 2100.
The analysis made by the Population Pyramid used data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division), applying novel models to forecast global, regional, and national future populations for other 183 countries, including Nepal. The population pyramid (aka age gender pyramid) shown below depicts the distribution of various age groups in Nepal’s population, which eventually forms the shape of the pyramid when the population increases. The blue histogram bars shown in left denotes male and purple in the right denotes females.
Source: PopulationPyramid.net
Kathmandu is the most populated city in Nepal, with a population of 1,442,271 after Pokhara and Patan. The overall population in Nepal is declining. Most rural Nepali workers migrate to India, China, UAE, and most youths migrate to the USA, Australia, Canada, Korea, and Europe in a search for opportunities. As per the Nepal Labor Department data, over 5.5 million Nepali youth travel abroad (USA, Australia, Europe, Canada) for study and work, more than 1.3 million Nepali migrants workers to Gulf countries, and 587,646 total migrants to India for employment. If the trend continues, this can lead to multipolar worlds at the end of the century, with India, China, the USA, and others as the power-dominant countries.
Scientists say that Nepal’s neighboring country India may be one of the few of only major powers in Asia, able to protect and keep their working-age population throughout the century.
As per the population scientists, we may see a drastic drop in working-age populations of age groups 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 in Nepal because of abroad migration trend for study and work purpose. Out of the total population, the old age groups from 55 to 59, to 70-74 will cover the highest percentage of the population, compared to the working-age population. Researchers predict how this can severely hamper the economic growth and stability of Nepal.
The analysis provides the Nepal government an opportunity to rethink its policies on migration, workforces, and economic development to address the challenges presented by the demographic change. As per the scientists, the COVID-19 crisis has affected local and national health systems throughout the world and caused over half a million deaths.
